Governments are stockpiling fertilizer at a pace not seen since 2022. Planting season pressure, disrupted Gulf shipping lanes, and disrupted LNG supply are converging in a way that has not fully reached consensus commodity analyst models — and the search data shows it.
What Broke
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global urea trade. Since the Iran conflict escalated in late February and early March 2026, shipments through the strait have been severely restricted. Qatar Energy, which operates one of the world's largest urea production complexes, has suspended output following att