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Equity Markets Have Priced the Oil Spike. They Have Not Priced the Three-to-Five Year LNG Supply Gap.

Iranian strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan complex have removed 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG capacity for an estimated 3-5 years. Concurrent with Hormuz transit collapse, this is a structural multi-year supply deficit. Crude-focused positioning is missing the duration.

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LNG supply gap Qatar Ras Laffan Strait of Hormuz Golar LNG Cheniere Energy alternative data energy supply disruption natural gas

The Change

Iranian missile strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City on March 18-19 have taken 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG capacity offline, with QatarEnergy's CEO confirming a 3-5 year repair timeline -- simultaneous with Strait of Hormuz LNG transits collapsing to zero for more than ten consecutive days.

Why the Market Has Not Fully Priced It

The dominant equity market response to the Hormuz disruption has been a crude oil rotation: Brent crude moved from $68 to $81.40 per barrel, a 19.7% gain, and energy sector buying concentrated in crude producers and refiners. That move refl

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