The global natural gas market entered April 2026 with a supply structure that has not existed in the modern LNG era. Qatar, which supplies roughly 20% of global LNG trade, halted production following US-Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure in late February. The Strait of Hormuz, through which the bulk of Gulf LNG flows, has seen traffic fall by 80%, with fewer than 21 vessel transits since hostilities began. LNG tanker rates spiked more than 40% in a single day when Qatar's halt was announced.
These are current events. What is structural is what comes after them.