Prediction markets have moved into the institutional mainstream. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) now offers structured Polymarket data to Wall Street, turning crowd-sourced probabilities on elections, policy, and macro events into normalized signals. At the same time, investors continue to rely on behavioral alternative data: search, web traffic, social engagement, and app usage that reflect what people are actually doing, not just what they think will happen. The two are often discussed separately. In practice, they answer different questions and are best used as complements. This post clarif
Prediction Markets vs Alternative Data: When to Use Which for Investment Signals
Prediction markets (Polymarket/ICE) and behavioral alternative data answer different questions. Here is when to use each, when not to, and how leading hedge funds combine them without double-counting or conflicting signals.
Paradox Intelligence Research
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