Gas turbine prices have risen 195% since 2019, reaching $600/kW by end-2027 according to Wood Mackenzie's April 2026 analysis, and the market is not close to equilibrium. Global orders reached 110 GW by end-2025 against manufacturing capacity of just 60-70 GW annually. Anyone placing an order today will not take delivery before 2029.
Why Consensus Is Underweighting the Duration of This Constraint
Most sell-side coverage of GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) frames the gas turbine backlog as a near-term story riding AI data center buildout. That framing misses the physical reality. The constraint is not de